Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Have we learned nothing?

From The Economist, (May 20th, 1882) in the midst of the London stock bubble in electric arc lighting companies:

"The electric light is very probably a great invention, and, for the sake of argument, let us take it for granted that its future development will be vast. But this, unhappily, cannot be urged as a reason why the pioneer companies should be prosperous. The history of our company manias has always proved the contrary. The greatest invention of the century resulted in the railway mania of 1845-6, and few were bold enough then to say it was not justified. In August, 1846, London and North-Western stock was selling at 235, North British at 155. Eastern Counties (now Great Eastern) at 160, and Mr Hudson was king ; yet for years afterwards even the best of our rail-ways were at a serious discount, while many became bankrupt, and never since, prosperous as our railways have latterly been, have such high prices been touched. Later, we have witnessed the introduction of submarine telegraphy, and there can be no doubt that here again was a legitimate field for enterprise. The Anglo-American stock has not maintained its high premium ; nor looking to other, and perhaps less well-grounded, manias, are such concerns as Asphalte, or Sewage Companies, quoted as they were in 1871. We might extend this list to any length, and always with the same result. One striking fact remains, that however great a revolution may possibly be in store for us, the inevitable competition amongst the rival electric systems will effectually prevent the shareholders from becoming millionaires, though that rĂ´le may possibly be played by the vendors. Yet competition has generally been to the public advantage, and will doubtless be so in the instance before us."

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